Weekly Market Update by Retirement Lifestyle Advocates

US Employers Cut More Than 170,000 Jobs in February

         Challenger, Gray, and Christmas reported that US-based employers cut 172,017 jobs in February, the highest total for February since 2009, when more than 180,000 jobs were slashed.

         The February total of job cuts is the highest monthly total since July 2020, when 186,350 jobs were cut.  (Source:  https://www.challengergray.com/blog/job-cuts-surge-on-doge-actions-retail-woes-highest-monthly-total-since-july-2020/)

         February’s job cut total is a 245% increase from January, when 49,795 job cuts were announced.        

         When compared with February 2024, job losses increased 103%.         

         That means that through the first two months of 2025, US employers have announced 221,812 job cuts, the highest year-to-date total since 2009.  Job cuts are up 33% from one year ago when looking at the first two months of the year.

Residential Real Estate Continues to Slow

         Pending home sales, obviously a forward-looking indicator of closed home sales, are sliding to very low levels.  This from the National Association of Realtors last week: (Source: https://wolfstreet.com/2025/03/27/in-the-south-west-pending-sales-of-existing-homes-mark-worst-february-in-the-data-as-inventories-in-florida-texas-california-surge/)

 -In the West, pending home sales declined, marking the worst February on record going back to 2011.  Pending home sales were just above the all-time low of October 2023.

-In the South, pending sales rose from an all-time low in January but still had the worst February on record.

-In the Northeast, pending sales dipped further, marking the worst February on record.

-In the Midwest, pending sales ticked up marginally, but still marked the worst February on record.

         The residential real estate market is slowing as I suggested it would.  It’s my view that this is just getting started; I believe lower prices for residential real estate lie ahead.

         This chart from Wolf Richter (source above) tells the story.  Pending home sales are at an all-time low going back to 2011.

         While the National Association of Realtors was publicly hoping that interest rates would likely come back down, the association is now seemingly giving up hope for lower interest rates.

         Interest rates on 30-year mortgages have been in the 6.5% range for the last month and have not been below 6% since September of last year.

         The South has seen a tremendous slowdown.  Take a look at this chart from Wolf Richter showing active listings in Florida.  Active listings are now higher than at any point since 2017.

Are You Middle Class?

         Pew Research defines the middle class as a household with 2/3rds to double the median household income.

         The highest median household income in the United States is in the State of Massachusetts.  Using the Pew Research definition of middle class, a Massachusetts household needs between $66,565 and $199,716 in annual income to be considered middle class.

         Here are a few states and the income needed to be middle class:

         In Alabama, the low end of the middle class begins at $41,471 in annual income and tops out at $124,424 in annual income.  The median household income is $62,212.

         In Alaska, the low end of middle class begins at $57,748 in annual income and tops out at $173,262 in annual income.  The median household income is $86,631.

         In Florida, the low end of middle class begins at $48,869 in annual income and tops out at $146,622 in annual income.  The median household income is $73,311.

         In Michigan, the low end of middle class begins at $46,117 in annual income and tops out at $138,366 in annual income.  The median household income is $69,183.

RLA Radio

         This week’s RLA radio program features an interview that I did with investment newsletter publisher, Mr. Simon Popple.

         Simon and I chat about the future of commodity investing and what aspiring retirees should do now to capitalize on the current economic and political environment.

         The interview is posted and available now by clicking on the "Podcast" tab at the top of this page.

Quote of the Week

“In my many years, I have come to the conclusion that one useless man is a shame, two is a law firm, and three or more is a congress.”

                           -John Adams, Second President of the United States