Over the past dozen years or so, the Fed has created currency literally from thin air, a process known as quantitative easing, and has kept interest rates at artificially low levels.
The economic news continues to concern. Technically speaking, inflation is an expansion of the money supply while deflation is a contraction of the money supply. Since all currency presently is debt, when debt levels reach unsustainable levels, the money supply contracts.
The Federal Reserve announced a $15 billion per month taper and markets rallied. All markets rallied as noted in the databox above; stocks, bonds, and precious metals all moved higher.
Despite the rhetoric from the Washington politicians that the nation’s fiscal woes can be corrected by taxing the billionaires, simple, basic math proves this doesn’t come close to solving the problem.
Stocks continued their rally last week, with many indexes making new all-time highs by the slimmest of margins.
From a fundamental perspective, the economy is weakening which will create more downward pressure for stocks.
Stocks rallied last week although, as I noted last week, technically speaking, stocks look weak.
Stocks, by my analysis, weakened even more last week. The first four trading days of the week were negative followed by a nice rally on Friday. Despite the rally, technicals in the stock market are breaking down by my measure.
According to the Investment Company Institute, at the close of the first quarter of 2021, the total assets held in retirement accounts in the United States was $35.4 trillion. Given that the ‘official’ national debt is approaching $30 trillion, if politicians could get their hands on the retirement account assets, the nation’s fiscal problems could be solved, if only temporarily.
Worldwide debt is at record levels. When the currency creation stops or slows, I expect to see an ugly deflationary environment emerge as the debt is purged from the system.