Retirement Lifestyle Advocates
It’s no secret that I have been forecasting stagflation – defined as a contracting economy (recession) and rising consumer prices.
I have long held that the economic boom we’ve experienced since the time of the Great Financial Crisis of 15 years ago has been largely the result of the artificial, easy money policies that the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world have been pursuing.
A large decline in stocks would not be surprising here, given the negative seasonal bias of fall and given the signs that the US economy is continuing to weaken.
The time frame through which we have all lived over the past 15 years has been largely artificial, and the prosperity we experienced wasn’t prosperity at all – rather, it was a prosperity illusion.
There are signs that the economy is beginning to slouch toward recession.
The consequences of deficit spending will eventually emerge, long after the short-term shot in the arm of unsustainable deficit spending.
There are many signs that US global dominance is coming to an end.
UAW members voted to strike if they determine it makes sense.
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) continued its decline in July, falling 0.4% month-over-month. This is the 16th straight monthly decline in LEI (and 17 of 18 months) – the longest streak of declines in the LEI since the failure of Lehman at the time of the Great Financial Crisis, when the LEI declined for 22 consecutive months.
The US economy is more than 70% dependent on consumer spending, and when the consumer can’t spend, the economy suffers.