Despite the ever-so-slight rally in stocks this week, I view the primary stock market trend as down. Unless the market highs of the end of 2021 are exceeded, this will be the case.
Thomas Paine, a hero at the time of the Revolutionary War but later much maligned over his views said, “Money is money and paper currency is paper. All the invention of man cannot make them otherwise.”
Stocks rallied and gold fell last week. At this point, I don’t view these developments as trend-changing, rather as counter-trend rallies.
The Dow to Gold ratio continued to fall last week. As currency devaluation continues, this is an indicator that becomes more meaningful in my view.
We are living in an interesting time, to say the least. Stocks and bonds are in a bubble. Regardless of the reason given for the decline in stocks by the pundits, overvalued assets eventually return to their real value.
With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Federal Reserve may now slow the taper. As noted in an article this past week by Lance Roberts, it would not be the first time the Fed used geopolitical risk to reverse or soften monetary policy.
The economic headlines last week were dominated by inflation, which has been the story of late.
As mortgage rates rise further, more and more people are throwing in the towel, and fewer and fewer people are desperate to lock in those now higher mortgage rates, which then translates into the decline in demand.
The double top theory for stocks that I called at the end of 2021 and have been discussing this month still looks intact despite a bit of a rally in stocks last week.