The double top theory for stocks that I called at the end of 2021 and have been discussing this month still looks intact despite a bit of a rally in stocks last week.
The double top theory for stocks that I suggested at the end of 2021, is looking like the right call at this point. Stocks suffered their worst week since March of 2020 last week despite a 4-day trading week.
While it remains too early to tell, there are many signs that the stock market may be ready to decline. It is my view that most of the gain in stocks seen since the financial crisis of a dozen years ago is attributable to the artificial market environment created by the easy money policies of the Federal Reserve.
My ‘double top’ theory from last week is holding true so far, but we will wait and see. At this point, it’s too early to tell. Bonds had a simply dismal week last week. The yield on the 30-Year US Treasury Bond spiked from 1.90% to 2.11% as bond prices fell hard.
January is typically an important month in the markets. Stock performance in January often accurately forecasts stock performance for the year. I will continue to monitor and comment.
Despite last week’s rally in stocks, the highs of mid-November remain the market’s high point. As I have been noting, my long-term, trend-following indicators remain negative.
The stock market highs of November have not yet been taken out and my long-term trend-following indicators continue to become more bearish. At this point, a “Santa” rally looks less likely especially given the Fed’s recent statements about accelerating the taper or slowing the rate of currency creation.
Historically speaking, this pattern of inflation followed by deflation repeats over and over again. If you’ve not already done so, take steps to protect yourself.
The Federal Reserve, the nation’s central bank controlled by private bankers, is now the buyer of last resort of US Government debt, and as such, the Fed has no choice but to continue to create currency further fueling the inflation.
No matter your political persuasion or leanings, we can all agree there is virtually no evidence that spending cuts are being seriously contemplated – quite the opposite is actually happening which is quite remarkable given the numbers.