Over the course of this year, the disparity in pricing between the paper or “spot” price of precious metals has widened. Put another way, the “premium over spot” at which physical precious metals sell has increased in calendar year 2022.
The disparity in price between physical metals and the spot price of metals has always existed but has been growing of late; just one phenomenon that exists due to the artificial economy created by fed policies over the past decade-plus.
Accumulating margin debt can drive stock prices higher and declining levels of margin debt can forecast a stock price decline.
When inflation first became a topic of conversation, I stated my view that unless we saw real positive, net interest rates, inflation would not be controlled.
The Federal Reserve will reverse course and begin to pursue loose money policies again reducing interest rates and once again engage in quantitative easing.
Ultimately, we will not avoid a deflationary event that will be unlike anything any of us have ever seen.
Inventories of ‘spec’ houses are now at the highest level since 2008 which saw the worst of the Great Financial Crisis
Layoffs are intensifying, the last inflation report was not promising, the stock market is reacting negatively and many retirees are thinking about going back to work. Seems to define a stagflationary recession doesn’t it?
There is a lot going on globally that will, in my view, create some additional headwinds for the US economy moving ahead.
Regardless of what you call it, a recession is here in my view. And the data suggests it will get worse before it gets better.