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Only politicians and members of the Federal Reserve Board are suggesting that we will not see a recession.  If history teaches us anything about the prognostications of politicians and policymakers it is that these are attempts to control or direct the narrative rather than being legitimate forecasts.

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Russia gets to keep her gold and will not be allowed to exchange her gold for devaluing US Dollars. That’s punishment?

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Last week stocks fell hard, US Treasuries declined as did gold and silver.

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Private sector debt levels are about the same as when the Great Depression began but US Government debt is about 8 times greater when measured as a percentage of GDP.

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Due to the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve, we are now experiencing inflation but we will not avoid a painful deflationary environment.

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This week’s holiday issue of “Portfolio Watch” is a preview of that Special Report.

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It’s the Fed’s “hold my beer” moment. After more than a year in which Federal Reserve leadership appeared clueless, pollyannish, and indecisive, the Fed is conducting a full-throated messaging campaign to show that it is as serious as cancer about the inflation surge that is scaring the bejesus out of consumers, investors, and economists.

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Stocks will fall, real estate prices will collapse, and unemployment will soar.

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From where I sit, it seems that stagflation is the most likely economic outcome near term.

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The premise of my best-selling book “Revenue Sourcing” is that an aspiring retiree needs to plan for one of two economic outcomes, either inflation followed by deflation or just deflation. As time has evolved, it has become increasingly apparent that we are seeing inflation soon to be followed by deflation.

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