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The reality of the current economic situation no matter what the week-to-week market numbers might say is that there is too much debt in both the private sector and on the public balance sheet to ever be paid with ‘honest’ money.

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Only politicians and members of the Federal Reserve Board are suggesting that we will not see a recession.  If history teaches us anything about the prognostications of politicians and policymakers it is that these are attempts to control or direct the narrative rather than being legitimate forecasts.

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Russia gets to keep her gold and will not be allowed to exchange her gold for devaluing US Dollars. That’s punishment?

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Last week stocks fell hard, US Treasuries declined as did gold and silver.

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Private sector debt levels are about the same as when the Great Depression began but US Government debt is about 8 times greater when measured as a percentage of GDP.

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Due to the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve, we are now experiencing inflation but we will not avoid a painful deflationary environment.

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This week’s holiday issue of “Portfolio Watch” is a preview of that Special Report.

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It’s the Fed’s “hold my beer” moment. After more than a year in which Federal Reserve leadership appeared clueless, pollyannish, and indecisive, the Fed is conducting a full-throated messaging campaign to show that it is as serious as cancer about the inflation surge that is scaring the bejesus out of consumers, investors, and economists.

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Stocks will fall, real estate prices will collapse, and unemployment will soar.

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From where I sit, it seems that stagflation is the most likely economic outcome near term.

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